Deal or No Deal is a genre of game shows where contestants play to earn money, based on an intricate system of statistically determined outcomes based on the player’s choices.
The game involves a maximum of twenty six cases, each having a certain differing amount of cash. The game begins with the player choosing one box of money at the beginning of the game that is not revealed to him.
He keeps playing successive rounds, eliminating one box at a particular point in time, when he is asked the traditional question, “Deal, or No Deal?”
Assuming that the contestant rejects every deal he gets, he keeps the money that was in the original case.
Winning is based on whether the contestant should have stuck to the original box or have invested in any particular deal, or not. With game shows being transposed online, you can play the deal or no deal slot with ZAR at Casino.com, without the added problems of actually going to a game show and participating whatsoever.
Winning it big is now clearly in your hands, as you take charge of your own deals, and bid adieu to hourly rates of earning for good.
What’s more, now you have our simple hack to explain how you can win bigger and larger every time you tread into the world of online game shows, as we explain probabilities of scale that governs game shows to you henceforth.
Probabilities explained:
Deal or No Deal works on very simplistic outcomes determined by conditional probabilities. The primary principles can be seen as:
- The contestant has a 1/26 chance that their case contains the grand prize.
- A prize of $50,000 or more has a probability of 4/26.
- Assuming the contestants hold on to their initial case, the expected prize he can earn is about $19,900.
- When the dealer makes an offer, it is often around the expected value of the remaining unopened cases, revolving around their average value more than the extremes.
- There are times when the offer is considerably lower or higher than the expected value, in a bid to push the contestant one way or the other. (It is worth noting that contestants tend to usually not take up the deal in the earlier rounds of the game)
Risk tolerance under duress:
Much like Casinos, Deal or No Deal is an interesting study in Utility Theory. It states that the utility of wealth diminishes as more and more wealth accumulates.
This means that there is a high probability for a contestant to be satisfied with a fairly decent share of $100, against winning a $1000, if there is an associated risk of losing even the 50$ and making nothing.
Thus when playing the game and being offered a lump sum amount of more than $1,000,000 whether or not the contestant goes for the deal will depend on:
- The money he has currently made – Assuming the player has won a fair share of money in the league of a few hundred thousand dollars, there is a high chance for the player to quit the game, because the utility that the player sees in a sum more than what he has earned tends to decrease since for an average person, a lot of money is a lot of money irrespective of how much the amount is.
- His ability for risk taking – Under stress, players tend to make illogical decisions at times, but these situations are rare. In most cases, whether or not the player wagers more will depend on how prone he is to the risk his earnings for a better outcome.
- Satisfaction with earned amount – Mental satisfaction based on the amount made can impede greatly, the maximum possible amount the player can make. Thus, the less satisfied a person is with what he has earned the more probable he is to wager more to win money.
These above principles are essential to note because probability theory states that the simple way to magnify the expected value and win a large amount is to keep wagering for more.
Banker: Friend or Foe?
While you may expect the Banker to offer you a deal that approximates to the average value to be won, you need to understand that Deal or No Deal is still a reality show that needs to be exciting.
Thus, while deals may be calculated based on the average value remaining, the banker will, in most cases, offer money that is either more or less than the average value the contestant stands to win.
This makes the game exciting. Thus, this is the game show’s own hack to alter human behaviour because they cannot mess with Mathematics.
A good counter therefore, is to keep calm and to stick to your average expected values and not be swayed by the banker.
There is an increased risk for a higher deal, and a simple cost-risk analysis will tell you it is not worth in. Simultaneously, while a lower deal may be safer, the decrease in value is not worth it.
Conclusion:
Assuming that the average value of remaining cases exceeds the current value won, the trick to winning bigger lies in wagering more and sticking to average expected values, although this might be restricted by the player’s inability to take more risks than necessary, or being satisfied with the amount earned, as utility diminishes with higher returns.
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