Critical Battery Materials Market to Grow at a 10.6% CAGR Between 2025 and 2035
Author: Dr Jiayi Cen, Technology Analyst at IDTechEx
The rapid expansion of electrification, enabled by lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), demands urgent actions to secure a stable and responsible supply of critical minerals for LIBs. IDTechEx’s new report, “Critical Battery Materials 2025-2035: Technologies, Players, Markets, and Forecasts”, forecasts that the demand for critical battery materials will triple in market value, exhibiting a 10.6% CAGR between 2025 and 2035.
Varying demand trajectories among different battery materials
The growth in battery material demand varies across different materials, driven by several factors including the demand for LIBs of different chemistries, material intensity variations across battery chemistries, and ongoing developments in lithium-ion cell design. Materials experiencing a fast growth in demand are manganese and nickel, while copper and cobalt are experiencing comparatively slower growth.
Critical materials for lithium-ion batteries exhibit varying demand growth rates. Source: IDTechEx
Critical materials that show lower sensitivity in demand with respect to the evolving cathode chemistry landscape are graphite, lithium, and copper. Graphite remains the dominant anode material for LIBs and has the highest projected growth in demand by weight. However, the increasing prominence of silicon as anode materials may decelerate graphite demand growth in the future. Lithium remains essential across all battery chemistries. While alternative battery technologies like sodium-ion could weaken lithium demand, any significant shift is unlikely in the near term. Copper, a key component for anode current collectors in LIBs, is experiencing slower demand growth due to the evolving Li-ion cell design factors.
The cathode chemistry trend directly influences nickel, manganese, and cobalt demand. Nickel demand is trending high due to the increasing adoption of high- and ultra-high-nickel cathode formulations for the electric vehicle (EV) industry. However, this growth faces competition from non-nickel or low-nickel alternatives like lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP). Manganese demand is set to rise significantly, driven by the increasing adoption of LMFP cathodes and manganese-rich cathodes like high-voltage lithium nickel-manganese oxide (LNMO). However, manganese battery-related demand remains small compared to non-battery demand in the medium term. Cobalt is expected to have a small demand growth by weight. The declining market share of cobalt-intensive chemistry — lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) —primarily used in consumer electronics and the industry’s shift toward cobalt-free battery formulations are two key factors restraining cobalt demand growth.
IDTechEx’s new report, “Critical Battery Materials 2025-2035: Technologies, Players, Markets and Forecasts”, provides 10-year forecasts on critical material demand from LIBs, accounting for the evolving cell chemistry trends and developments in lithium-ion cell design.
Global raw materials supply growth lags behind surging battery demand
The demand for critical minerals used in LIBs is growing faster than the global supply from mining. The battery-sector demand is becoming increasingly dominant. This trend, already evident in the lithium and cobalt markets, is projected to extend to other critical minerals like nickel.
Producing LIBs requires battery-grade purity levels for materials such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite. However, refining these minerals to battery grade can be costly and energy-intensive. Currently, most of the global refining capacity is concentrated in China, posing geopolitical risks to the battery supply chain. Initiatives to diversify battery-grade refining capacity beyond China and vertical integration linking mineral extraction with battery-grade chemical production are gaining traction across the supply chains of several battery materials, illustrated by numerous examples in the report.
Currently, battery minerals are primarily sourced from land-based mining operations. The depletion of easily accessible, high-grade ore deposits is forcing a shift towards mining lower-grade ores. This trend presents both economic and technical challenges due to declining ore grades and changing mineralogy. Advanced extraction and processing technologies are being developed to address these challenges. However, their adoption requires time and investment and carries financial risks. This report provides comprehensive overviews of mineral extraction and refining technologies for several critical battery minerals: lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, and natural graphite, and discusses the sustainability impacts of raw materials, considering factors such as feedstock types and processing routes.
Deep-sea mining presents a potential avenue for future mineral supply. However, its development in the near-to-medium term is subject to considerable uncertainty, owing to factors such as regulatory challenges, public acceptance concerns, and economic feasibility. This report explores seabed resources, detailing their distribution and characteristics, and provides outlooks on mineral exploration and exploitation in both domestic and international waters. Additionally, it provides an overview of activities from key players along the marine mineral value chain.
IDTechEx’s “Critical Battery Materials 2025-2035: Technologies, Players, Markets and Forecasts” report offers a comprehensive analysis of the critical battery materials market, including 10-year materials demand forecasts from lithium-ion batteries and 10-year global mineral supply forecasts with regional breakdowns for lithium, nickel, cobalt, and copper from mining. The report also examines regulations related to critical minerals and battery materials in major regions worldwide, including China, Australia, Indonesia, Chile, Europe, and the United States.
To find out more about this new IDTechEx report, including downloadable sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/CriticalBattery.
For the full portfolio of related market research available from IDTechEx, please see:
Advanced materials and Critical minerals market research
Energy storage and batteries market research
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