Political protests are not a rarity in developing Africa. And while the rioting recently occurring in Kenya is unfortunate, this should not distract attention from international observer accounts of the Presidential elections.
Pending a potential run-off election, the global community should wait and see how the democratic nation recovers and stabilizes, rather than make snap judgements about rule of law in the country.
But with 50% of the African population presently under the age of 18, activism and particularly youth activism, today emboldened by social media, will not disappear anytime soon. One of the key principles to resiliency in the face of tyranny is free expression and transparent governance. It is not as important to understand what the rioters were hoping to accomplish in Kenya as why they were hoping to accomplish it.
I recently ran into Ukrainian-born David Zaikin, a well-known Geopolitical and Commercial Advisor whose work gives him key insights on the present state of African government relations and political campaigning strategies in this new era of empowerment.
Tell us about the evolving nature of African politics
Contemporary African politics are changing, once made malleable by post-colonial Independence and today, from advents in technological and financial liberation. There are no ‘safe havens’ of antiquation. And so, rather than focus on how to quell such uprisings, one must rather understand the motivations for them while navigating this newfound climate of globalizing African polity.
Having your message found when not directly referenced is now critical. We are all subject to the search engine and effective management of this environment, much like in traditional media, often means asserting control over the prevailing school of thought. This is no different in the United States than in each country in Africa, where ‘citizen journalism’ has become King.
Connectivity is a driving force and campaign promises to enhance it are held in extremely high regard from unprecedented market demand.
What factors should we take into consideration when exploring developments in African elections?
Rule of Law – While much changes, much also needs to stay the same. Rule of Law, for example, is the cornerstone of any functioning democracy. However, around the world and indeed across the continent of Africa, adherence to it may shift seismically.
Understanding how best to garner electorate trust through effective rule of law promotion and how this mission will differ from one country to the next, from the DRC (where despite great potential, President Kabila has arbitrarily decided to extend his own two-term mandate) to Angola (the latter having hosted elections only late last month), is paramount.
Media Efficacy – The strings of media coverage in Africa have long been pulled by rulers, oligarchs, and strongmen alike. As journalists in the West, particularly in the United States, face a contemporary crisis brought about by more than a decade of decreased earnings and an ensuing focus on the flash that gets clicks as opposed to factual substance, more politicos could look to Africa to gain comprehension. African citizenries’ effective understanding of and resiliency from (rather than protest) the propaganda-driven environment of ‘Fake News’ serves as an example for foreign geopolitical analysts, commercial investors and even the Trump Administration. They can learn much from Africa in this regard and understand how to position a candidate responsibly in an era of ‘Alternative Facts.’
This worldwide shift in journalism towards ideological coverage has come to a head in the U.S. When moral values and political reporting collide in the world of journalism, there are no longer standard rules so as to ensure integrity. This is something that long has been understood in Africa so it will be interesting to see how a proliferation of communications channels on the continent serves to shape the information environment.
Due Diligence Matters – It’s rarely ever ‘Our Brand is Crisis’ – The consistent failure of Western lobbying firms in foreign environments is more often than not due to a lack of investment in proper, prolonged and impactful socioeconomic due diligence ahead of implementation.
Take Senegal, as an example – with a rich heritage and abundant mineral resources such as iron ore and gold, recently discovered world class gas basin, it’s an investment opportunity in the making. However, millions continue to live without electricity. The next Parliamentary and Presidential elections will be important tests for all parties.
One must understand the social fabric intricacies before choosing whether and /or how to play a role in voicing effective change.
Or Nigeria – The absentee President Buhari is much like the ‘Emperor With No Clothes’; a leader in perhaps only his own mind. By calling corruption endemic and naming names in the ostentatious way he did while entering office, some foreign investors doing active business with the individuals named pulled out of country in haste. With VP Osinbajo theoretically running the ship, there is a clear deficit in leadership and fractured political parties such as the All Progressives Congress (APC) or People’s Democratic Party (PDP) need the cohesion necessary to fill the on-going void. What’s more, time is of the essence; the ailing President may not unfortunately complete his term ahead of 2019 Presidential elections and so from Tinubu to Orji Kalu to Dangote, the path is arduous but imperative clear for Nigeria to fulfil its promise for prosperity.
Or South Africa – With ‘State Capture’ as perpetuated by the Gupta scandal a continued mentality of the electorate and deterrence to the African National Congress (ANC) in maintaining its mandate of Madiba, the late, great Nelson Mandela, we must turn to the private sector for solutions to maintain the ‘power-player’ status and leadership pole position on the continent which South Africa had long championed since the fall of Apartheid.
Election Results Themselves – Africa is extremely vulnerable to the surging trend of election rigging – state-sponsored actors or ‘hack-tivists’ attacking the election system. The unprecedented, well-funded and organized Russian assault on the U.S. election system in 2016, as well as other examples of countries or groups conspiring to influence elections abroad such as the Gulenists have created dangerous precedents around the emerging world. Such activities continue around the globe and governments need to rebuild voter confidence in fair elections across Africa and worldwide, while being vigilant of threats to political integrity in future.
We often work with inspirational leaders, movements and political parties in Africa and around the emerging world to proactively deter these threats and ultimately, to fine-tune calculated, bespoke political campaigns that resonate with their citizenries in country and across their Diasporas. Our campaigns reverberate around the world so as to shore up interest, attention and support for our clients.
I know you have spent a lot of time in Africa. What is your most memorable experience?
A truly life changing experience was visiting Senegal at the same time as the 2013 Presidential visit of Barack Obama. My dear friend, the Honorable Amadou Wone, former Ambassador of Senegal to Canada, took a few friends and me to Goree Island. There we toured an island where millions of slaves were taken from Africa and brought to the United States. Race relations have resurged to the surface of the American social fabric as evidenced in the despicable actions of white supremacists, who took to the streets of Charlottesville, Virginia and desecrated the land of Jefferson by their very presence.
It’s important to remember history in its proper context – and I believe it was Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. in a speech in 1968 (while reflecting upon the Civil Rights Movement) that said “…in the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.” This resonates with me, as I am a proud member of a family renowned for their efforts in helping Jews escape from the Soviet Union to Israel through Poland.
Any final takeaways?
One of the leaders of Guinean opposition recently told me that “…elections are no longer about rice and t-shirts”, which exposed how the Government attempted to win elections in the past.
Now it’s down to a new generation of a leaders’ ability to build a movement among the dissatisfied, oppressed people, motivated like never before to have their voices heard and today, able to do so with ease and efficacy.
As they say in the ‘Game of Thrones’ hit television show, ‘Winter is Coming’ – Continued political manoeuvring will only strengthen in conspicuousness in a period of heightened attention, both in the press, on the streets and online.
Hopefully, my reflections may help prepare those seeking to understand African politics and support development of business opportunities on the continent. There are storms ahead, and business should be ready for them.